A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
