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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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